David Cameron is set to hold the in-or-out referendum on Britain’s
future membership of the European Union in June next year and will announce the
fast-tracked date as the centrepiece of his party’s annual conference in
October.
Although the Queen’s Speech in May promised the British electorate would
be given its first chance since 1975 to have a say on EU membership, the
Government did not name a date for the vote, only that it would be held before
the end of 2017. Chancellor George Osborne was believed to be keen for the
referendum to be held later rather than sooner to maximise chances of securing
the best possible deal for Britain, but the Prime Minister has now calculated
that a 2016 vote will give him a better chance of promoting what may end up
being a limited package of EU reforms, and of highlighting the economic risks
Britain could face if it left the EU.
The Independent on Sunday has learned that Mr Cameron has decided to
pencil in June of next year. The source insisted that the 2016 date, and
the parliamentary bill to approve it, would not prove to be a barrier in the
House of Lords.
The recent turmoil in Greece, and the concerted efforts by member states
to keep Greece in the euro and inside the EU, were also described as being
“influential” over Downing Street’s recalculation of the referendum date. The
reluctance in Brussels to allow a member state to leave the European project
has encouraged government leaders to believe that the reforms they are seeking
will be granted. However, the Prime Minister has, according to senior sources,
now accepted there is only a limited chance of securing changes to the EU’s
governing rules contained in the Lisbon treaty.
Downing Street sources confirm Mr Cameron is now confident that European
leaders are embracing the need for change and want Britain to continue playing
a leading role in the eurozone. One senior source said: “Polls show that
support for remaining inside the EU is the highest it’s been for a quarter of a
century. The PM has already made his case to all 27 EU leaders and a vote held
next year or the year after will not affect the outcome.”
Advisers have told Mr Cameron that he could copy a so-called unionist
“vow” which preceded last year’s Scottish referendum in which voters were
promised a package of reforms provided they voted in favour of the union. Using
this approach the PM would tell British voters that the EU will make good on
reforms and exemptions if there is a vote to remain in the EU.
The Government’s wish list for EU reform includes an opt-out from closer
nation-state union inside the EU, changes to the way work benefits apply to EU
migrants and an easing of the way Brussels enforces EU legislation on
member-state parliaments.
The announcement of the 2016 date is planned to be a high-profile part
of Mr Cameron’s keynote speech to the Tory conference in Manchester in October.
There are fears inside Downing Street that if the referendum date is
allowed to drift into late 2017, Britain’s bargaining power would suffer. But
holding the poll within a year would stop Britain’s demands becoming a divisive
political issue in the French presidential and German federal elections, both
in 2017.
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