BY
It’s been a month since the
last entry was made regarding the trilateral talks between Ukraine, the EU and
Russia surrounding the bilateral Association Agreement and DCFTA between
Ukraine and the EU.
On 1st December another round of talks occurs
some 30 days prior to the full implementation of the agreement between the EU
and Ukraine – this time Ukrainian Foreign Minister Klimkin will be attending – for reasons as yet unknown (as the lest
few rounds of talks have been at “expert/technical level).
Perhaps he is expecting one last Kremlin
onslaught, one last high-stakes attempt at blackmail (of either bilateral
party), or maybe some details of where The Kremlin sanctions against Ukraine
will manifest – or it is probably better stated, what will actually be exempted
The Kremlin sanctions so Ukraine can prepare the reciprocal actions.
Ukraine is after all, far beyond caring about the sensitivities of the
Kremlin.
(It should be anticipated that if and when
Ukraine gets Visa-Free short term visitor status for its citizenry, The Kremlin
will cancel that status for Ukrainians in the “spirit” of reciprocity.)
As the above linked entry stated – “A
large scale trade embargo toward Ukraine is all but assured by a Kremlin that
perhaps still believes it can beat, threaten and coerce the current Ukrainian
direction out of it – when instead with every such act, it simply beats that
choice further in.
The question therefore, is how long will any
such Kremlin instigated embargo upon Ukrainian goods last? The answer will be
in years – but how many?
A glance at the 1990’s would suggest that as a
petulant and truculent Kremlin embargoed almost all trade with the eastern
European and Baltic States as they swiftly stepped out from under The Kremlin
shadow, they rapidly redirected their trade flows. Naturally a free trade
agreement with the EU, let alone the deep and comprehensive one that comes into
force, means that Ukraine will have little option but to make the most of that
opportunity (and other opportunities outside of Europe). Those certain Ukrainian
businessmen that pre-war in The Donbas who would have tried to slow such a
process due to their trade interests with Russia, having seen them dramatically
effected by Kremlin sponsored events in the east, will also be forced to look
to other markets during the (likely) forthcoming embargo years.
During the early 2000’s, similar Kremlin
embargoes on Moldova and Georgia forced trade reorientation with Europe (and
others) too.
The end result being that when The Kremlin
relaxed and/or removed its imposed embargoes, pre-embargo trade levels never
returned – with any of the nations involved.”
Is Mr Klimkin attending just in case Foreign
Minister Lavrov turns up? Thus far there is nothing in the Russian public
realm that states he is attending – he probably has his hands full dealing with
the latest self-inflicted Kremlin
trade wounds with Turkey. (To be sure Ukraine (and no doubt others) will do
its very best to step into the Turkish trade vacuum the Kremlin sanctions
and/or embargo opportunities present.)
Is Mr Klimkin’s attendance simply a symbolic
statement to how seriously Ukraine takes the DCFTA issue, and with a mere 30
days prior to full implementation the Foreign Minister will attend the talks –
despite there being no possible changes to the fully ratified agreements
between Ukraine, the EU, and all governments of the Member States?
He is hardly attending because he happened to be
in the neighbourhood (even if he did happen to be in the neighbourhood, for
that’s not how these things work).
Thus it is a rather interesting announcement.
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